Mortgage markets tanked last week, raising rates to their highest levels in a month. 

Most of the losses occurred Wednesday in what was the worst 1-day mortgage market performance in more than 6 months. Even Friday's rally could barely dent the losses. Most of the movement was tied to geopolitical concerns and worries of a ballooning federal debt load. 

The best time to lock a conventional or FHA mortgage rate last week was Tuesday morning.

This week, markets should remain volatile. There's a large set of economic data due for release, plus trading volume will thin as the week goes on because markets are closed Friday for Good Friday.

Coincidentally, Friday is also the day that the March jobs report is released.

The non-farm payroll report is expected to show net job growth of 187,000 in March. This is a large number as compared to last month's net loss of 36,000 job. However, analysts are already dismissing March's numbers as skewed by both the bad storms of February, and the temporary hiring of Census workers.

In most months, major job growth would be bad for mortgage rates.  This month, that won't be the case. It will take a figure north of 200,000 to cause rates to rise and the higher the actual number, the more that rates will respond.

Also this week, on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's $1.25 trillion program to support mortgage markets sunsets. Fed insiders estimate that the program dropped rates 1 percent since its inception in 2008. It's reasonable that mortgage rates will rise after its end, therefore.

The Federal Open Market Committee adjourns from a scheduled 1-day meeting today, its second of the year. 

The FOMC has held the Fed Funds Rate in a target range of 0.000-0.250 percent since December 16, 2008, and the voting members of the Fed are expected to vote "no change" again today.

However, no change in the Fed Funds Rate doesn't necessarily mean no change in mortgage rates.  This is because the Fed Funds Rate is a different interest rate from the rates home buyers get from a loan officer. 

• Fed Funds Rate : Short-term rate at which banks borrow from each other
• Mortgage Rate : Long-term rate of interest a homeowner pays on a mortgage

Mortgage rates are more responsive to what the Fed says as compared to what the Fed does. 

After each FOMC meeting, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke & Co issue a formal press release to the markets.  At roughly 400 words, the statement is a brief commentary on the strengths, weaknesses, and threats for the U.S. economy.

Wall Street watches the statement with great interest and this is why mortgage rates are often volatile on the days of an FOMC adjournment. One mention of a word like "inflation" and traders rush to dump their mortgage bond positions.

Inflation is the enemy of mortgage rates.

After the Fed’s last meeting in January, it told us that the economy had "weakened further", led by steep declines both in housing and employment. Global demand was off, too.  The negative tone of the Fed's statement caused mortgage rates to fall to near an all-time low.

This month, expect a less gloomy message.

Since January, there's been a modest rebound in housing, employment appears more stable, and Retail Sales just posted huge gains.  If the Fed alludes to improvement in any or all three, mortgage rates will likely reverse and zoom higher.

We can’t know what the Fed today will say so if you're floating a mortgage rate and wondering whether to lock, the safe approach would be to do it today, prior to 2:15 PM ET.

Mortgage markets worsened last week with little economic news to push markets in either direction. Momentum trading and rebalancing of portfolios drove mortgage rates higher, on average.

FHA and conventional mortgage rates rose last week, marking the first time that's happened this month. 

Mortgage rates have been on impressive run lately and mortgages are priced far better than what most experts predicted.  Weaker-than-expected economic data is one reason why.  Lack of economic data may be another.

This week, however, data returns.

• Monday : Industrial Production and Home Builder Index
• Tuesday : Housing Starts and Building Permits
• Wednesday: Consumer Confidence
• Thursday : Producer Price Index and Initial Jobless Claims
• Friday : Consumer Price Index and Continuing Jobless Claims

And, as if all that weren't enough to spook you, the Federal Open Market Committee meets for a scheduled, 1-day event Tuesday.

The Federal Reserve is expected to vote to hold the Fed Funds Rate in its current target range near 0.000%, but that doesn't mean mortgage rates won't change. Markets are responsive to the FOMC's post-meeting press release and any clear talk of economic strengthening should drive rates higher.

Wall Street is in Wait-and-See Mode and this week will give it plenty to look at.

If you're floating a mortgage rate, or waiting to lock, be prepared for wild swings in mortgage rates -- especially leading up to Tuesday afternoon's FOMC adjournment. The Fed adjourns at 2:15 PM.

The Federal Reserve begins its scheduled two-day meeting this morning.

It's one of 8 scheduled meetings for the Federal Open Market Committee this year.

When the FOMC meets, it discusses the financial and economic conditions around the country and, when appropriate, the group makes new policy meant to speed up or slow down the economy.

The main tool for reaching this goal is the Fed Funds Rate and, earlier this year, the FOMC lowered it to "near-zero" percent in an attempt to stimulate growth.

But the Fed has other tools at its disposal, too, not the least of which is its $1.25 trillion pledge to the mortgage markets.

Now, if you'll remember, the Fed made that pledge in two parts:

• Part 1 came in November 2008 for $500 billion
  
• Part 2 came in March 2008 for $750 billion
  

After each announcement, mortgage rates reflexively dropped and stayed low for a period of a day or two. Then, fears of inflation set in on Wall Street, causing mortgage rates to pop back up because inflation is a mortgage-rate killer.

The Fed isn't expected to increase its mortgage market commitment this week, but because mortgage rates are above the government's "target zone", it's possible that the FOMC uses its post-meeting press release to give markets some guidance and its plan for the next several months.

A statement like this could alternately raise mortgage rates or lower them, depending on what the Fed says.

It's for this reason that floating a mortgage rate through tomorrow afternoon is extremely risky. The Fed could say nothing about mortgages, or it could say a lot. Either way, a small, quarter-percent change in mortgage rates can add tens of thousands of dollars to the lifetime cost of a person's pending home loan.

Mortgage rates are suffering through another volatile week, causing problems for home buyers.

After falling Monday and Tuesday, mortgage rates surged Wednesday and Thursday. The momentum higher appears to be carrying into the weekend, too.

There are several data-related reasons for the mortgage market's spastic activity this week:

1. Unemployment claims fell
2. Leading Economic Indicators rose
3. Inflation readings are tame

But while each of the data points above fueled mortgage rate volatility, it's not the data that's making markets move the most. It's the psychological impact of the data.

See, data tells us about the past. It measures and reports on what's already happened. Unfortunately for rate shoppers, mortgage markets are not made on data from the past -- they're made on the expectations of what will happen next.

Mortgage rates reflect Wall Street's opinion of the future.

In reading the papers and watching the news, you'll notice ongoing debate about the U.S. economy. It's unclear whether the recession is worsening or improving.

On one hand, data is weak and sub-optimal. On the other hand, the data is not nearly as weak as it was 6 months ago and, in some cases, it's strong. To some, this is a signal that a recovery is already underway.

Or, it may just be a blip.

We can't be certain in which direction the economy is headed and the same can be said for mortgage rates. Because sentiment is changing so often, though, it forces us to be on our toes.

The last few months have been marked by large mortgage rate swings across small windows of time. A rate that's offered in the morning, for example, is rarely available in the afternoon. Therefore, do your rate shopping in a compressed period of time and be ready to lock at a moment's notice.

When markets move, they tend to move quickly.

The retail price of gasoline is rising nationwide, now up 30 percent since the New Year.

It's a similar run-up to what we've seen for retail gas prices in each of the last 5 Spring Seasons.

For people trying to time the mortgage market's bottom, clues about the future of mortgage rates may be at the local gas station.

Rising gas prices are indicative of the rising cost of energy and, indeed, crude oil is closing in on its 2009 highpoint.  As these energy costs grow, so do inflationary pressures on the U.S. economy.

Inflation, of course, is awful for mortgage rates. When it's present, mortgage markets deteriorate and rates tend to rise -- often sharply and with little advance warning.

So, for today's homebuyers-in-process and would-be refinancers, prices at the pump may foreshadow bad news for the future of housing affordability.  Even a modest, quarter-percent increase would have a palpable effect on payments, adding $372 in annual costs to a $200,000 home loan.

Since last week, gas prices are already up by 10 cents per gallon.

Shopping for low mortgage rates is a game of luck. 

Some days, mortgage rates are favorable.  Other days, they're not.  And while you can sometimes make an educated guess about where rates might be headed, you're not always going to guess right.

Even the experts get it wrong more often than they'd like.

But some parts of the rate shopping process can be predicted and one of them is the future of mortgage guidelines. 

In general, the more often homeowners default on their respective mortgages, the harder it is for future mortgage applicants to be approved.

This is why "now" may be the best time to apply for a FHA mortgage.  Defaults are climbing, suggesting that FHA underwriting guidelines are about to tighten.

Indeed, the FHA has implemented two major changes since last summer:

1. The minimum downpayment requirement was raised by a half-percent to 3.5%.
2. Cash out refinances are now limited to 85 percent, down from 95 percent.

These changes create barriers to entry for potential FHA borrowers, improving the overall quality of the FHA loan pool. 

For a taxpayer-funded agency like FHA, loan performance is an important goal.  Therefore, as the number of defaults grows, expect FHA guideline to get tighter.

The problem is, though, we can't predict just where the FHA will tighten.  Maybe the FHA raises its minimum FICO score requirement, or maybe it gets tough on seller-paid closing costs.  A hike in loan fees isn't out of the question, either -- that's the path Fannie Mae took, after all.

Whatever the FHA does, fewer people will qualify for FHA mortgages once it's done.  So, if you're planning to buy a home and your downpayment is limited, or your credit scores are suspect, or there's some other "red flag" in your profile, consider moving up your timeframe to act. 

Mortgage rates may rise or mortgage rates may fall, but neither is going to matter if you can't get qualified for a home loan.  And, for FHA mortgage applicants, tougher mortgage guidelines are only a matter of time.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal Online)

When conforming mortgages adjust, they're often tied to an interest rate index called LIBOR.

LIBOR is an acronym for London Interbank Offered Rate. But what LIBOR stands for isn't as important as the role it plays.

LIBOR is an interest rate at which banks borrow money from each other.  Therefore, when banks feel the banking system as a whole is unsafe, LIBOR rises to compensate. 

It's why LIBOR spiked last October after Lehman Brothers failed.  Financial institutions wondered what other institutions would fail and that added risk to the system.

Since October, however, and because of massive government interventions worldwide, LIBOR has been on a steady retreat.  Moreover, with close to $30 billion in conforming mortgages scheduled to adjust by Labor Day, the timing couldn't be better for homeowners with conforming ARMs.

Typically, a Fannie Mae- or Freddie Mac-backed mortgage adjusts once annually.  The adjusted interest rate is always equal to some constant -- usually 2.250 percent -- plus the rate of LIBOR on the date of adjustment.

As a math formula, the ARM formula might like this:

New Mortgage Rate = LIBOR + 2.250 percent

In October, when LIBOR was above 4 percent, a homeowner's ARM may have adjusted to 6 1/2 percent.  Today, that same ARM would move to four-and-a-quarter.

As a strategy play, it might make sense to let your ARM adjust because the rate will remain low, but with fixed rate mortgages hovering near 5 percent, locking up a long-term rate may be smart, too.

Talk to your loan officer to review all of your choices.

April 4, 2009, marked the official start of the Making Home Affordable refinance program.

Expected to help 5 million homeowners, the Making Home Affordable program "looks the other way" with respect to falling home values, approving mortgage applications based on borrower payment history and benefit to the homeowner.

Not every homeowner is eligible for a Making Home Affordable refinance, however.  There are 3 basic criteria that must be met.

First, your existing home loan must be backed by either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.  Thankfully, both companies provide online lookup services.  Start with the Fannie Mae site because Fannie has a greater market share and because Freddie Mac's site requires your social security number.

Next, you must have a perfect mortgage payment history over the last 12 months.  Even one payment made 30 days late disqualifies you from participating in the Making Home Affordable program.  It is okay, however, if you were 20 days late on your payment and incurred late fees.

And lastly, the balance on your mortgage cannot exceed your home's value by more than 5%.  The math formula is (Mortgage Balance) / (Home Value).  If the quotient is greater than 1.05 then your loan-to-value exceeds 105% and you are not eligible for Making Home Affordable.

Now, assuming you meet the criteria, there are some noteworthy details of the Making Home Affordable program:

1. If you didn't pay mortgage insurance prior to refinancing, you won't have to pay it after refinancing -- even if your loan-to-value exceeds 80%.
2. All refinances require income verification -- even if the original mortgage was a stated income loan.
3. Second mortgages cannot be paid off using loan proceeds -- they must be subordinated

There are other guidelines, too, and both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have dedicated portions of their website to the Making Home Affordable program. To the layperson, unfortunately, the information may be a bit technical. 

Even the government's fact sheet can be a little dense at times.

Therefore, if you have specific questions about the Making Home Affordable program and your own eligibility, first check to see if Fannie or Freddie is backing your loan.  If they are, pick up the phone and call your loan officer to plan next steps.

The program ends June 10, 2010.

Thursday morning, homeowners in different parts of the country awoke to find similar-sounding newspaper headlines:

• Rates on 30-year mortgages sink to 4.78%, a new low (LA Times)
• Mortgage rates at record low for 2nd week (Miami Herald)
• Mortgages hit another record low (San Francisco)

The underlying story was that Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the lowest, average 30-year fixed rate mortgage in its 38-year, rate-tracking history.

Once again, however, the headlines came too late for homeowners.

Prior to Thursday's market open, mortgage markets had already worsened from their record-setting levels.  Slowly at first, and then with momentum.  The shift pressured rates higher so that when lenders issued their Thursday morning rate sheets, most showed an 1/8 increase from Wednesday's close.

The negative momentum carried into the afternoon, too, forcing a second increase of an 1/8 percent.

The Freddie Mac survey may have been accurate when the sun came up Thursday, but by the time the sun went down, it wasn't even close.  It's why you can't do your rate shopping by watching newspaper headlines.  Mortgage markets are volatile and rates often change without notice. 

Thursday, they did it twice.

If you're in want of a cash out refinance, the most liberal cash-out program in town is about to make qualification more difficult. 

Effective April 1, 2009, the FHA is reducing the maximum loan-to-value on cash-out refinances by 10 percent, dropping the loan size limit from 95% of the home's value to 85%.

In its official press release, the FHA says it's making the change to "limit its exposure to undue risk". 

It also lists the following cash-out requirements:

• With less than 12 months since the purchase date, a home's value cannot exceed its original purchase price -- even if home improvements were made.
• A homeowner must be current on his mortgage payments to qualify
• A second, verifying appraisal may be necessary, depending on loan traits
• Co-signers may not be added to the mortgage note in order to qualify

The last day to register a FHA 95% cash out refinance is Tuesday, March 31, 2009.  The loan does not need to be "locked" -- only registered. 

So, if you know that a 95% cash out FHA refinance is in your future, talk to your loan officer before Wednesday morning about registration.

You know you're in the middle of an economic crisis when an accounting issue become Front Page News, and that's exactly where we're at today.

Mark-to-market accounting is having its day in the sun and people in need of mortgage sometime soon would do well to pay attention. 

If you've never heard of mark-to-market accounting, don't worry. Not many people have.  Mark-to-market is a method of valuing an asset based on its what-if-it-was-sold-today value.  Mark-to-market is officially known as FASB Statement 157.

Mark-to-market is one reason why bank balance sheets look so awful right now.  Banks have to assign firesale-like values to their mortgage-backed assets even if those loans are performing, and even if there's no plans to sell them.  Assigning low values to assets, then, in turn, forces the banks to seek TARP funds and take other measures to solidify their mandated capital requirments. 

Wall Street and Washington are taking notice of mark-to-market's impact on banking and, by extension, the economy.  Even Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has expressed an interest in opening a dialogue about the matter.

So, today, starting at 10:00 AM ET, the House Committee on Financial Services meets with key members of the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Treasury, and the Financial Accounting and Standards Board to talk about mark-to-market accounting and whether it should be modified.

It's unlikely that change will come immediately, but if enough evidence shows that mark-to-market is unduly damaging to the economy, expect changes to the way we value banks to happen soon. 

For homeowners and home buyer, a reversal in mark-to-market rules would be a bad thing.  Almost overnight, bank balance sheets would recapitalize and the economy would spring forward.  This would reverse most of the pressures that have held mortgage rates low for so many months.

A healthy economy, in other words, may be bad for mortgage rates.

The basis of most mortgage lending is credit scoring.  In general, the higher a person's credit score, the lower his offered mortgage interest rate.

Despite the many credit scoring models in use today, however, just 3 are relevant to American homeowners:

• The Equifax BEACON^® score
• The Experian Fair Isaac Risk Model
• The TransUnion EMPIRICA^®

Generically, these scoring models generate what are commonly known as "FICO" scores.

FICO scores are measurements of probability.  The higher a person's credit score, by definition, the less likely a person is to default on his home loan.  This is one reason why credit scoring has added importance lately -- mortgage lenders are very careful about what they're lending and to whom.

Notably, minimum FICO thresholds have been added to all types of mortgage loans.

FICO scoring has 5 main components as listed above.  Payment history and credit capacity are two of the largest pieces, but a myriad of other factors contribute to a credit score, too.  For example, the longer your reported history of managing credit, the more favorably your credit score will respond.

This is one reason why closing a credit card can damage your credit score -- it wipes out the "reported history".

The myFICO.com website does a terrific job with credit education, explaining in plain language the ins-and-out of credit scoring and ways to boost your score.  It also makes a free, 20-page PDF available for download. 

Whether you're a homeowner or lifetime renter -- consider it required reading.

As part of the stimulus package passed last week, Congress authorized a temporary increase to conforming loan limits in certain high-cost parts of the country.

"High cost" is defined by a regions' median sales price.

With the temporary increase, a greater share of Americans can now qualify for Fannie Mae- and Freddie Mac-backed loans, usually the least expensive source for mortgage money.

Higher loan limits can be good for the housing market and the broader economy for two reasons:

1. Cheaper money can spur new home demand, supporting home values.
2. Higher loan limits render more homeowners refinance-eligible, freeing up cash for spending, saving, or investing.

The complete county-by-county loan limit list is available on the OFHEO website. 

Of the 3,232 U.S. counties, 10 percent are considered "high-cost".  Residents of these areas can expect the same low rates offered to the rest of the country, but with a slight premium.  Be sure to ask your loan officer about how it works.

There seems to be a misconception that jumbo loans – loans higher than the new higher conforming limit of $729,750 – are not available, or that the percentage rates for them are in the 7’s or 8’s.  This, I am happy to say – since the average price in the areas I serve is in excess of $1,500,000. – is no longer the case.

At a meeting I attended Friday, one of my mortgage friends was quoting jumbo rates as 5.75%, up to a $3 million dollar loan.  That, my friends, is phenomenal!  Bear in mind that, while the Government has passed legislation that the upper limit of “conforming” loans would again go up to $729,750, most lenders are still quoting the old lower limit of $625,500., while their bosses work out the details of the pricing of the new higher limits.

If the higher limit will be important to you, either for a purchase, or a refinance, it should only be weeks before it is in place – ask your preferred lender for details, or if you don’t have one, give me a call at 949-643-2100, or shoot me an email at Bob@BobPhillips.net, and I will be happy to refer you to the one I work with.

After improving through 11 straight weeks, mortgage rates finally ticked higher last week.  This, according to Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey.  The Freddie Mac survey showed that mandatory mortgage fees rose last week, too.

Unfortunately, the bad news for rate shoppers doesn't stop there.

Because Freddie Mac's rate survey is conducted on Tuesday but its reports aren't released until Thursday, the published data doesn't even account for the previous 48 hours of activity in which rates and fees have risen further.

Versus last week, 30-year fixed, conforming mortgage rates are up 0.16% on average nationwide.  On a $200,000 home loan, this equates to a roughly $20 extra per month, or $7,055 over the life of a 30-year loan.

The Era of Low Rates may not be over, but it may be time to get off the fence.

Another week, another headline screams how mortgage rates have falled to an all-time low.

Freddie Mac published its weekly mortgage rate survey Thursday and found that the "average" mortgage rate is now 4.96 percent, the lowest since the survey started in 1971.

But, if we look beyond the headline, we find that there's another part of the story worth watching.  Mortgage rates are falling but the number of points required to lock those rates is not - with most lenders.

Most lenders are now requiring an average payment of 0.7 points to get the 4.96 percent rate from the headlines.  That's up from 0.6 percent last week and 0.4 percent a year ago.

A "point" is a fee equal to 1 percent of the loan size. 

Therefore, to get access to a 4.96 percent interest rate on a $200,000 home loan, today's typical lender would require an extra $200 versus last week and $600 versus last year.  Today's mortgage borrower would be subject to a $1,400 closing cost in addition to the "typical" closing costs accompanying a purchase or refinance.

This is a period of historically low rates -- there's no doubt about that.  However, the cost of getting access to low rates is increasing, for most buyers.  The press doesn't always tell that part of the story and it's one more reason to look deeper than the headlines.

The good news is this.  The lender I choose to work with, and recommend to my clients, charges the lowest fees of any lender I know.  Drop me a line or give me a call and I will put you in touch with him.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal)

Even though its effective date is April 1, 2009, mortgage applicants should start seeing Fannie Mae's new fee structure from lenders beginning this Monday, January 12.

The reason why Fannie Mae's mandatory loan fees are hitting lender pricing so far in advance is because lenders can take up to 30 days to package and sell a loan to Fannie Mae post-closing.  In effect, this moves the April 1 start date to March 1.

Then, figuring that March 1 is roughly 45 days from now and that 45 days is a normal window on which to close on a home or on a refinance, the start date again pushes back, this time to January 15.

Given lenders' typical timeframe to close, fund, and sell a loan to Fannie Mae, in other words, it's normal that pricing reflects the fee changes two-and-a-half months in advance.  Homebuyers and would-be refinancers would do well to take notice.

If you are floating a mortgage rate today -- or shopping for one -- consider locking it in before the close of business.  Effective Monday, any number of traits in your home loan could increase your closing costs:

• Your credit score
• Your downpayment / equity percentage
• Your home's property type
• Your reason for wanting a mortgage
• Your loan type

For a complete look at Fannie Mae's new, mandated loan fees, visit the Fannie Mae web site.  If you have trouble interpreting the worksheet, call or email me and we can talk about it together.

When conforming mortgages started defaulting en masse in late-2007, mortgage guarantor Fannie Mae created a loss-offsetting, fee-generating scheme dubbed "loan-level pricing adjustments".

The concept was basic: For mortgage applicants with high-risk profiles, collect up-front payments to offset potential long-term losses. 

Similar to the auto insurance model in which younger drivers pay higher premiums, riskier applicants pay higher fees.

At the inception of the program, Fannie Mae defined "risk" as a combination of borrower credit score and home equity percentage.  In general, lower FICOs and higher LTVs paid more costs.

Effective April 1, however, Fannie Mae's definition of risk is expanded.  By a lot.  Fannie Mae's new loan-level fees now impact any conforming mortgage that meets any of the following criteria, with the exception of fixed rate loans of 15 years or less.

• Up to 0.75% fee: Secured by a condo/co-op with less than 25% equity
• Up to 0.50% fee: Features a junior mortgage (i.e. HELOC, HELOAN)
• Up to 1.00% fee: Features interest only payment options
• Up to 1.00% fee: Secured to a 2-unit property
• Up to 3.00% fee: Is designated as "cash out"

Each 1 percent in fees equals 1 percent of the borrowed amount. Therefore, a condo buyer with a $200,000 first mortgage and a $25,000 line of credit is subject to a mandatory 1.25% charge of $2,500, due at closing.

However, it doesn't stop there.  Fannie Mae has also adjusted its original FICO-LTV matrix so that nearly every applicant -- irrespective of credit score -- will face higher closing costs on their home loan.

Mortgage rates may be falling, but the cost of financing a home is rising.

Fannie Mae's latest announcement is its fifth risk-based pricing update in the last 15 months.  It's likely it won't be the last, either.  Therefore, if you're torn between to buy a home now or later, consider that the cost of waiting may outweigh the benefits of falling prices or falling rates.

As part of the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008, Congress authorized a conforming loan limit increase in "high-cost" areas around the country. Versus the national conforming loan limit of $417,000, for example, a Manhattan home buyer could secure a 2008 mortgage for $725,000 and still be within "conforming" guidelines.

Effective January 1, however, those limits rolled back.  Conforming mortgages in the 59 designated high-cost regions are now capped at $625,500. 

In non-high-cost areas, the 2009 conforming loan limits remain unchanged from 2008.

• 1-unit properties : $417,000
• 2-unit properties : $533,850
• 3-unit properties : $645,300
• 4-unit properties : $801,950

Loans in excess of these dollar amounts are often called "jumbo", or "super jumbo" home loans, depending on their size.  Jumbo home loans tend to be more costly than their conforming-sized cousins.

For its last move in an action-filled year, the Federal Reserve announced it will begin buying its pledged $500 billion in mortgage-backed securities next month.

For home buyers, the timing couldn't be better.

Because December 31 is one of Wall Street's most thinly-traded days of the year, low volume is exaggerating the announcement's impact on mortgage markets.

Mortgage rates are lower this morning.

However, you may not have much time to act.  Few mortgage lenders permit after-hours rate locking and bond markets close at 2:00 PM ET for the holiday.  If you miss today's Fed-fueled low rates, markets re-open Friday for your second chance.

Mortgage markets are like any other market -- in order for goods to change hands, a buyer and a seller must first reach an agreement to "trade" at a specific price point. 

In general, the more buyers and sellers there are for a particular item, the easier it is to find that "fair value" and make the deal. 

An abundant number of buyers and sellers often creates a liquid market in which assets -- in this case, mortgage bonds -- can be sold rapidly with minimal loss.

This week, though -- with so many traders on vacation -- the "liquid market" has gone illiquid.  The treasury market posted just 41 percent of its normal, daily volume Monday, leading to erratic pricing in the mortgage bond market which, in turn, caused mortgage rates to follow.

For example, mortgage rates started the day lower yesterday before sprinting higher over a 30-minute, early-afternoon span.  Markets were largely unprovoked by economic data, geopolitical developments, or technical factors.  It just, kind of, "happened" and the move left mortgage rate shoppers in the dust.

That could happen a lot this week.  So, if you're in the market for a mortgage, be ready to lock quickly.  With low liquidity, rates rarely sit still for long.

(Image courtesy: Purdue BCM)

In late-November, the Federal Reserve pledged $600 billion to buy mortgage-backed securities.  The announcement drove down mortgage rates and started the Refi Boom.

Then, the Federal Reserve made a second series of statements after its scheduled meeting last Tuesday, causing mortgage rates to plunge again.  This started the Refi Boom's second wave.

Because of the surge in refinance activity, mortgage lenders are "backed up"; initial file reviews are taking up to 12 business days in some cases. 

Typically, this process takes 2 days.

Underwriting delays are problem for refinancing Americans because when a mortgage rate is locked, it's most often locked for 30 calendar days -- the standard Rate Lock Agreement contract length.  If the mortgage doesn't close within those 30 days, the applicant must either pay an "extension fee" to preserve the lock, or risk losing the rate altogether.

30 days may seem like a long time, but let's consider a few external variables:

• December 24, 25, and 26 plus January 1 and 2 are lost to holiday
• December 27, 28 plus January 3, 4, 10, 11, 17, and 18 are lost to weekends
• January 19 is lost to federal holiday
• 3 days are lost to the Right To Cancel clause

This leaves 13 days to get from Application to Closing, and of those 13 days, 12 of them are being spent on the initial review.  30-day rate locks, therefore, may be inadequate with some mortgage lenders.  A 45-day agreement may be required instead.

Typically, 45-day rate locks carry higher rates or higher fees, versus their 30-day counterparts.  This amounts to a "tax" on borrowers, a result of the nation's rush to refinance en masse.  It also may preclude a homebuyer's ability to close in 30 days.

As always, the best way to preserve a rate lock is to be as responsive as possible to the process.  Return paperwork when asked, schedule appraisals immediately, and arrange to signing closing paperwork on the first available day.

With mortgage rates low, application volume -- and underwriting turntimes -- should remain high into early-2009.

During the holiday season, retailers bombard shoppers with at-the-register offers to "open a charge card and save 15%". 

It's an immediate money-saver, but for Americans in the market for a new home loan, taking advantage of the in-store savings could be a long-term loser.

This is because new credit card applications are damaging to credit scores.  According to myFICO.com, "new credit" accounts for 10 percent of a credit score; recent applications may signal weakness in a borrower's profile.

Meanwhile, conforming mortgage lenders make rate adjustments for low credit scoring applicants.  As an example, a home buyer with a 20 downpayment and a 715 credit score would face an interest rate adjustment of 0.125%. 

Below 700, the adjustments are even worse.

It's okay to take advantage of the in-store savings during the holiday season, but just be aware of how it may impact your credit score going forward.  If you're not applying for a new home loan in the next six months, chances are that you'll be alright. 

But, if you will need a new home loan, consider whether saving 15 percent on a $200 purchase is worth it if the long-term cost is paying an extra 0.125 percent on your new mortgage.

(Image courtesy: myFICO.com)

When it comes to mortgage rates, sometimes it's better to "act now".

On Tuesday, mortgage rates fell to their lowest levels in 4 years. It happened because the Fed said it would "employ all available tools" to resuscitate the economy.

On Wednesday, however, the markets had second thoughts.

After considering the long-term implications of a near-zero percent Fed Funds Rate and the cumulative cost of government intervention to-date, suddenly, traders grew fearful that U.S. government action would devalue the dollar and lead to inflation -- the enemy of low mortgage rates.

As a result, mortgage markets unwound.

At first, the exit was a slow and orderly. Then, without warning, investors began a full-on sprint for the exits. By the end of the day, mortgage rates were higher by as much as a half-percent. Nearly all of Tuesday's big gains were erased.

In hindsight, the reversal Wednesday wasn't all that surprising -- it's the same trading pattern we've seen twice already this year. The first time was after the Fed's "surprise" rate cut in January, and the second time was after the federal takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in September.

Sharp rate drops tend to be followed by immediate bounce-backs, it seems.

But, unfortunately, not every would-be refinancing homeowner saw the increase coming. While those that locked at the first opportunity to save money are sitting pretty today, the rest that "waited for rates to go lower" are likely kicking themselves about it.

Going forward, mortgage rates may fall, or they may not. We can't possibly know. But we've now seen the pattern 3 times now -- when mortgage rates plunge like they did Tuesday, they rarely stay that low for long. When you find a rate you like, get in and get locked as soon as possible.

Sleeping on it for even one night may end up costing you dearly.

(Image courtesy: The New York Times)

The Federal Open Market Committee adjourns from its 2-day meeting at 2:15 P.M. ET today. 

It's widely expected that the Ben Bernanke-led FOMC will reduce the Fed Funds Rate by a half-percent to 0.500 percent.

Fed Funds Rate cuts are meant to stimulate the economy by lowering borrowing costs for businesses and consumers; interest rates on business credit lines and consumer credit cards are directly tied to the benchmark rate.

However, it won't be what the Fed does today that will be as important as what the Fed says.  And the markets are listening closely. 

See, this FOMC meeting was originally scheduled to last 1 day but on November 20, it was extended to 2.  Presumably, the extra day was meant to give the FOMC a chance to review its options, but now it has the markets expecting "something big".

Wall Street wants Bernanke to outline credit-extenstion plan for banks, businesses and consumers.  It wants the Fed to bolster markets to prevent the recession from become a depression.  It wants action.  Anything short of an explicit plan should push traders into ultra-safe U.S. Treasury bonds and that should lead mortgage rates higher.

If you are floating a mortgage rate today, it may make sense to lock prior to the Federal Open Market Committee's press release.  Expect volatility beginning around 2:00 P.M. ET today. 

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal)

A mortgage is a contract between a lender and borrower, defining the terms by which a home loan must be repaid. 

The paperwork, signed by both parties, includes provisions for things like:

• The interest rate
• The length of the loan
• The amount of money to be borrowed

But, like all loans, a mortgage loan can be paid off at any time.  So, when market interest rates fall, homeowners will often exercise their right to an "early payoff" by securing a new loan that pays off the old one.

This process is most commonly known as a refinance.

A refinance is the changing of the loan terms against a property, often for a better interest rate or a lower monthly payment.  When the refinance process is complete, the original lender's loan is paid in full using the money from the new lender's loan and the former's relationship is officially terminated.

There's no rule against how many times a person can refinance, nor is there an easy way to determine whether or not a refinance makes sense.  In general, if you can reduce your monthly payment while limiting your closing costs, to refinance is a smart decision. 

However, there are other reasons to refinance, too, including:

1. To convert from an ARM into a fixed rate mortgage (or vice versa)
2. To extract equity for paying off third-party debts or for cash
3. To extend a loan from 15 years to 30 year for payment relief

Because there are fewer third-parties involved with a refinance, it's often simpler and less expensive than a comparable purchase transaction.  The paperwork stack is often smaller, too.

Earlier this year and under pressure from the government, mortgage lenders made more than 200,000 loan modifications to delinquent homeowners.

The modifications came in one of three forms, or a combination:

1. Interest rate reduction
2. Loan term extension
3. Principal forgiveness

But despite the modifications, as of October 1, more than half of the homeowners that received assistance were already two months behind on their modified monthly payments. 

This late-pay statistic was a focal point on Capitol Hill yesterday as the government admitted delinquencies "were larger than [they] thought they'd be".  Loan modifications are proving inadequate at slowing foreclosures and yesterday's session opened the door to more effective foreclosure prevention measures.

However, of all of the statistics published, there was one of particular interest.   

Based on its loan modifications to-date, the FDIC has found that modified borrowers default far less when new monthly payments are less than 38 percent of monthly household income.  This is important because Freddie Mac guidelines for ordinary mortgage applicants currently cap that rate at 45 percent.

If the 38 percent figure holds up long-term, it may lead mortgage lenders to permenantly reduce maximum debt-to-income allowances.  Already, mortgage insurers have taken this step so it's not out of the question for lenders.  Tighter guidelines mean fewer mortgage approvals.

If you're unsure of whether now is a good time to buy a home, consider that mortgage rates are low, mortgage guidelines are tightening, and foreclosure prevention efforts reduce the supply of available homes.

Prices may not have bottomed, but the market is giving everyone a lot of reasons to consider buying now.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal)

Business television is abuzz this morning with talk of "four-point-five percent mortgage rates".  The news stems from a leaked story that the U.S. Treasury will intervene in the mortgage market, lowering rates a full percentage point below their current levels.

As cited by every journalist in every publication, however, the story is 100% speculation.  Naturally, that doesn't stop the press from covering it.  When hope for homeowners gets spread in this manner, it's important to remember some facts:

1. The Treasury doesn't set mortgage rates -- Wall Street traders do.  Historically, rates are based on the Supply and Demand for mortgage-backed bonds.
2. Treasury intervention doesn't guarantee low rates.  That mortgage rates are up by a half-percent since last week proves it.
3. Zero details about the plan have been confirmed, quoting CNBC.  Everything you've heard about 4.5 percent rates is a guess at this point.

But, perhaps most importantly, nearly every analyst interviewed has expressed a belief that a Treasury-sponsored stimulus would apply to home buyers only.  Homeowners wanting a refinance, in other words, would be ineligible.

Mortgage rates are very low today compared to where they've been in 2006, 2007 and 2008.  If you think your mortgage rate is too high for this market, reach out to your loan officer to review all of your options.  If rates really do reach 4.500 percent, you can always refinance again later.

Each Wednesday, the Mortgage Bankers Association releases its Weekly Applications Survey, a detailed look at new mortgage applications submitted over the previous 7 days.

This week's report will reveal what most of us already know -- plunging mortgage rates created a flood of mortgage activity.

If you're among the many Americans taking advantage of today's low rates, don't forget that when your rate was "locked", it was locked with an expiration date.  

Most likely, that rate lock is for 30 days. 

And, while 30 days may seem like a long time, it's not.  Especially because rate locks made prior to Thanksgiving lose a combined 14 days to weekends and holidays, plus another 4 days to the Right To Cancel clause.

A 30-day rate lock, therefore, yields just 12 "working" days in which to underwrite and approve the mortgage and that's not a lot of time at all.

Making matters more difficult, many lenders are ill-equipped for boom.

Not only has staff been pared down in expectation of a slowing economy, but December a prime vacationing month, too.  Lenders are short-staffed at a very inopportune time.

So, for active refinancing homeowners, the best way to preserve a 30-day rate lock is to be as responsive as possible to the process:

• If paystubs are requested, return them on the same day
• If a home appraisal is needed, schedule the appraisal immediately
• If a closing date is scheduled, don't postpone it by a day

As mortgage rates hang near 3-year lows, the number of refinancing homeowners nationwide will grow, further taxing lenders and their staff.  If you already have a loan in process, be pro-active about it to prevent your 30-day rate lock from expiring.